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No, the title for this month's column is not
misspelled -- unfortunately. As soon as one dragon is slain -- in this
case the Y2K bug -- it seems another pops up to take its place. I am
referring to the sun, helios, old sol, the sine qua non for our planet's
existence and, hence, our survival.
From a realistic viewpoint, there may be less
that we can do in the short term to fight this dragon, in that Mother
Nature is involved and not just human enterprise and technology issues.
In fact, as you read this column, the sun already may be hard at work,
interrupting electricity flow somewhere in the world. This year marks
the cyclical "high-point" for solar-magnetic storms. When the
last zenith occurred in 1989, the entire province of Quebec, Canada, was
in the dark for about 12 hours, thanks to the early effects of one such
large solar-magnetic storm. Other areas of the planet suffered milder
effects on their electrical T&D systems.
This time around, things could get worse. We are
putting far more demanding load conditions on the world's electricity
grid than we did in 1989, and the end-user load is far more sensitive to
voltage fluctuations. More importantly, we have not invested enough
money in electric power-related spending for advanced research and
development, or in infrastructure upgrades, according to a recent
critical warning statement issued by the Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI).
It appears that our long-distance transmission
grid, which is ever-more interconnected than in 1989, will be especially
vulnerable to the solar-magnetic storms. Our vastly increased reliance
on radio-based communications also may prove susceptible to
solar-magnetic influences, resulting in occasional radio-signal
interference.
It still seems to me that we put the cart before
the horse, with the way our nation went about deregulation; that is, we
changed the playing conditions and the field design without changing the
composition of the team components or members. Not only that, in the
United States, we have created 51 different playing fields, and each of
these variants rely on reconstituting the nature of the utility business
from the same old team constructs that were right for the old playing
conditions.
In spite of all these dragons before us, as I
wrote in 1998, understanding the nature and constitution of the
professionalism among our electricity-industry members -- utilities and
suppliers -- the industry would make it through the Y2K without serious
disruption. Now that that particular dragon has been slain, more or
less, new external challenges have come on to the scene.
The big questions now include: Are we still up
to facing these multiple threats? How can automation play a role here?
Have we reduced the human content of our reformulated T&D utility
business below the safety threshold required for reliable service and
safe operations?
Impressively, 150 participants contributed
information to the EPRI report that suggests that prior
electric-industry research has paid huge dividends. However, with the
current shortfall in such research, there will be a few new gains
realized in the new century. The report indicates that the current
T&D grid in the United States is outdated and poses not just some
concern but a "serious threat" to the U.S. economy.
The report's premise is this: Deregulation is
speeding up the obsolescence of today's T&D grid architecture and
infrastructure, implying that the vastly increased number of electricity
trades across interconnected lines is stretching the nation's grid
beyond its design specifications. I would add that this applies equally
across the majority of the world's electrified regions.
Remember that T&D grids were designed and
built for a regulated world, one in which power flow was quite stable,
power transferred with adequate advance planning and not very
frequently, and mostly flowing within a local or regional area, at that.
Despite an awareness that EPRI's success also dictated in large part by
the level of investment in research programs for the industry. I agree
with EPRI's recent report conclusions.
Over the last two decades, studies indicate that
utilities are not willing to invest sufficient funds to develop advanced
technology for T&D.
Industry executives are often taking a narrow,
sometimes self-serving and dangerously naïve view of a business that is
crying for longer term infrastructure investments to assure continued
electric power T&D reliability, integrity and security. Over the
next 10 years, distributed generation will undoubtedly mature to the
point that the situation may be alleviated, lowering the future
requirement for the level of large-scale infrastructure spending that
needs to be allocated at this time. However, 10 years is a long way out,
and without substantive investment soon, we are not likely to bridge
that coming decade-long gap without serious negative consequences.
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