OUTLOOK FOR AUTOMATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

Transmission & Distribution World April 1997

By Chuck Newton, Automation Editor

Both overriding universal trends and specific world-regional trends are evident when looking at the direction of transmission and distribution automation and information technologies in the world's electric utilities who have an eye to the 1997-2000 time horizon.

Some universal trends are occurring with utility T&D-related technology and automation plans. Let's first take a look at some of the global trends we see in the course of conducting North American and international research programs. In 1995-1996, these programs engendered participation in one or more of our nearly 35 public and private survey-based studies from more than 2200 utilities in 42 countries.

In terms of information technology used in control and monitoring systems, the world's utilities will continue to agree on such issues as:

• spending less and obtaining more relative value per T&D automation dollar spent.
• Looking to client-server technology to replace larger, centralized computer systems.
• Increasingly looking toward open communications links for their solutions, both on a systems levels and on an intelligent electronic device level.
• Planning to incorporate optical fiber links in the utility's infrastructure communications physical media strategies.
• Becoming inclusive of other utility organizations (administrative services, information systems/services, finance, business planning, etc.) in planning their large-scale, longer term T&D initiatives.
• Interested in both UNIX (for true, real-time applications) and in Windows (NT and, to a lesser extent, 95 and 3.1) environments.
• Planning to incorporate more online monitoring of filed equipment, instrumenting additional substations with RTUs and PLCs and adding more electronic measuring and metering devices in the substation. On the other hand, we continue to note some real and substantive differences in other key areas, where a global solution to a problem does not fit all the world's utilities equally well. In general, the world's utilities will continue to differ on such items as:
• Two specific communications-related issues. The first being selection of physical media used for T&D data applications in the field. Service area topography, environmental considerations, prices and local availability of supply and support are often key determinants in the communications mix selected by utilities. The second communications issues is the selection of protocols. Differences among suppliers, experiences within the utility, existing systems and LAN/WAN interface limitations may well dictate the available options.
• Level of funding available for information technology and automation initiatives on a relative basis. T&D automation and information technology spending as a percent of the utility's electricity sales revenues vary widely.
• Specific suppliers favored in the systems and equipment areas.
• Interest in forming strategic alliances with key vendors.
• Willingness and ability of utility staff to perform some internal equipment configuration and integration work.
• Interest in purchasing complex new control and monitoring systems in phases or in a single procurement.
• Product life cycle expectations for the entire range of T&D equipment and systems. T&D infrastructure equipment sales on a worldwide basis are continuing to grow, albeit slowly overall, and with great disparity among various world regions. For example, in North America, transformer sales are down, especially in the large power segments, but North American transformer plants are benefiting from an increase in export sales.

Export sales have been aided in part by GATT and NAFTA treaties, which have caused markets to expand in Latin America, Asia Pacific, Canada and Mexico.

Likewise, switchgear sales continue to ebb in North America and in Western Europe from the high tide of industry sales in the 1970s. But switchgear and transformer sales in Asia, and in some, but not all, countries in Central and South America and in Eastern and Central Europe are looking up for the 1997-2000 horizon.

Sales of T&D infrastructure equipment and systems to much of the African, Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian areas will improve on all fronts early in the next century (Table 1).