| After
scanning recent headlines and listening to testimony from
congressional hearings, I get the impression that the electric
utility industry, both in the United States and abroad, is
flirting with catastrophe as we approach the millennium. Dire
predictions have been made by a number of "observers" in whose
collective opinions, the majority of electric utilities are
"not prepared" for the changeover from 1999 to 2000.
For T&D
managers, there are software and embedded hardware concerns to
ponder. The bigger problem may be in the "mix" of field
devices. Some of the millions of such devices now being
installed are of recent vintage, likely with embedded digital
or solid state electronics, while some of the other equipment
are older electro-mechanical devices. A fundamental question
concerning these devices is whether or not dates and times are
used in conjunction with activity or event data acquisition,
and if so, where are the points at which date information is
collected, routed and processed?
Year 2000 compliance
issues are much broader for most organizations than answering
"What can we expect to happen in the control center at the
stroke of midnight on Dec. 31,1999?" As one web site
information page (NETRIX) points out, several related dates
could trigger serious problems beginning as early as the end
of 1998.
The IEEE draft "Year
2000 Terminology" also points out the multi-faceted date
issues facing operations and utility IS groups. A second IEEE
draft, "Year 2000 Test Methods," is also in the works, so some
help is on the way. Such help is not without its costs,
however. EPRI's Y2K Embedded Systems Program, for example, is
geared to electric utilities, and has an initial membership
fee of US$75,000. This program provides members with
information sharing, workshop attendance and related services.
Compliance "solutions," however, are not guaranteed.
If we look at basic
problem solving techniques and incorporate elements of the
scientific method and formal systems analysis, we can take
some steps that may well result in timely and successful
"compliance" initiatives. First, utility management needs to
fully understand the situation that confronts the utility's
data and time-oriented technology base. The need for
management awareness and resulting action planning is
critical. One key is to ensure that T&D is included in the
utility plans for Year 2000 compliance. While this sounds like
a "no-brainer," nearly one quarter of IS senior officials told
us that their compliance plans do not include any funding or
resources for embedded systems.
Secondly, take stock
in the T&D information technology assets, many of which
are imbedded systems likely to be under the control of
Operations departments. These assets may not have been
included in the IS department's Year 2000 compliance review
program. Among the many device types that could be date/time
oriented and need to be evaluated and tested are relays,
meters, switches and other similar devices found in
substations, and along the T&D grid infrastructure.
Next, contingency
plans must be formulated. The need for such planning, together
with the design of effective work-arounds, development of
usable back-up methods and procedures, should be self-evident.
We need to prepare and validate such plans for our
mission-critical systems (EMS, SCADA, DCS), sub-systems (such
as those found in the substation or in the Engineering
Department), and system elements (an array of data acquisition
devices, including remote terminal units, programmable logic
controllers and other substation-based equipment and field
devices). Remember, both hardware elements and software
components are suspect at this point.
The fourth step
involves solution development or remediation. We need to
develop approaches to resolve whatever problems have been
uncovered in the T&D asset/inventory assessment from the
second step above. Develop actual solutions, some maybe as
simple as device/subsystem or system replacement, or upgrading
or bypassing the same. Redevelop software and modify computers
and communications links as required. Remember that the
weakest "date-oriented" link in the system could cause
failure. Keep in mind that no utility is an island unto
itself. Check out how neighboring utilities and regional pool
operations are coming with their Year 2000 compliance
programs.
After this step, we
need to test our work-arounds, or software patches, or our
chip fixes and validate that the fixes will work. Finally,
these validated solutions need to be implemented.
Most investor owned
utilities are budgeting from US$1 million-US$10 million on
Year 2000 compliance activities. Unfortunately, most of that
funding (75%) is earmarked to ensure date compliance of the
administrative and business management systems. The remaining
share is allocated for embedded systems such as those
supporting generation, transmission and distribution
activities.
If we can work with
time zone changes twice each year in all of our time-based
monitoring and control activities, implement complex PEX/ISO
systems without losing a beat, operate sophisticated energy
management systems with elements from multiple vendors that
speak different protocols, then the electric utilities of the
world can successfully marshal the resources required to meet
the challenge of Year 2000 compliance.
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