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Substation Communications Protocols

Choice of protocol within the substation, between substations, and from the substation to the external host or network.

Newton-Evans studies of the North American market for substation automation suggest that while there has been some (minimal) movement toward at least testing and piloting IEC 61850 in the U.S. and Canada, there has been no significant shift toward widespread adoption of the protocol suite among North American utilities. Nonetheless, previous studies have predicted that by the end of this year 10% of North American electric utilities may be using some level of IEC 61850, probably in conjunction with other protocols.

The current users of DNP 3 and Modbus continue on with these protocols (migrating from serial to LAN-based versions) through the end of this year. Several utilities are reliant upon SEL protocols in more of their substation integration activities, at least among SEL customers.

Are protocols encrypted?
The trend towards encryption of substation communications is growing steadily every few years, as is evident from previous Newton-Evans studies.

SS_comms_encrypted

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Smart Grid and Time Synchronization

Precision timing and time synchronization are topics vital to the future of smart grid operations, especially in electric power substations. In the recently published Newton-Evans, “Assessment and Overview of the World Market for Time Synchronization in Electric Power Substations,” we asked 17 vendors what time references their substation IEDs support. Fourteen out of 17 said that their products support IRIG-B, and 13 indicated NTP (Network Timing Protocol). Precision Timing Protocol (PTP) and Pulse Rates are offered and supported by 9 of these manufacturers while PTP with Power Profile is supported by 7. Just over one-third (35%) reported using direct GPS signals, while nearly one-quarter (23.5%) of the group reported “other” time references were used or offered with their substation equipment.

timerefsupported

The participating manufacturers represent the majority of substation-based intelligent electronic devices (other than protective relays) used in conjunction with substation modernization programs. A number of these respondents also manufacture synchrophasor products including phasor measurement units and phasor data concentrators. Among the other product classes represented are: metering products; communications switches; fault and event recorders; protective relays; automation processing platforms; equipment monitors, and a range of IEC 61850 and DNP 3 supported equipment and devices.

Utility and Consultant Survey Observations
There was strong support for this time synchronization study received from 57 utilities in 24 countries. In addition to the utilities, six leading international engineering consulting firms provided key members of their substation consulting teams to participate in the study. The survey included 14 questions related to substation timing issues and current approaches to synchronize and distribute timing information.

Current Market for Precision Time Clocks
The multi-industry use of precision clocks (masters and slaves) is estimated to be in the range of $200-250 Million as of 2012, with moderate to good growth anticipated by clock manufacturers as well as by utility users. The mid-to-long term market outlook indicates growing interest in adoption of precision timing protocol (PTP) IEEE 1588.

Global sales of time synchronization devices for use in electric power substation (and all other electric power) applications are estimated to be in the range of $35-50 Million for 2012.

This 64 page report, “Assessment and Overview of the World Market for Time Synchronization in Electric Power Substations: A Utility and Industry Survey-Based Report on Precision Timing Requirements” is now available for $975.00 on our reports page. Samples from the report are available.

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Utility CAPEX/OPEX Report Published with Results of April-July 2013 Newton-Evans Study of Electric Power T&D Investment

Ellicott City, Maryland – July 24, 2013: The Newton-Evans Research Company today announced the publication of its fifth study in the multi-year tracking research program looking into electric power utility capital expenditures or CAPEX budgets related to smart grid investments and infrastructure spending plans.

Findings from the second and early third quarter 2013 Newton-Evans global tracking study of electric power transmission and distribution investment remain positive, comparable with the four earlier tracking studies conducted in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Each of six “smart grid” component areas, plus transmission and distribution infrastructure development, has been reported by utilities located in 30 countries to more likely be either “increased” or “unchanged” rather than “decreased” from the last study. The highest percentages of officials reporting CAPEX increases were in the areas of transmission infrastructure and protection and control, followed by distribution infrastructure and control systems.

2013-14PlannedCAPEXtable

O&M budgets reflect a somewhat upbeat story as well. Several categories of O&M spending were more likely to see an increase from the OPEX budgets of two years ago. Distribution infrastructure and Distribution Automation both have gained some budget increases. Overall, international utility officials were more likely to indicate increases in both CAPEX and OPEX spending allocations for the majority of grid modernization topics.

Read the archived news release here.

This report is available on our reports page for $495.00. Feel free to call (410-465-7316) or email info@newton-evans.com for more information.

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Third New Market Study in July: Observations and Overview of the U.S. Market for Fuse Links, Power Fuses and Current Limiting Fuses Among Mid-sized Electric Utilities.

This new 40 page market report is based on a survey of mid-size utilities regarding usage levels and brand preferences for fuse links, power fuses, and current limiting fuses. The report looks at the most common amp ratings, key manufacturers, budgets and annual usage levels of fuse links, power fuses and current limiting fuses among the sample, and offers projections to the entire U.S. market. The power fuse section also looks at indoor versus outdoor applications and refillable versus one time use units. Voltage and current combinations are charted by usage levels for current limiting fuses. “Observations and Overview of the U.S. Market for Fuse Links, Power Fuses and Current Limiting Fuses Among Mid-sized Electric Utilities” is priced at $675.00 and is available for purchase on the reports page.

This is the third Newton-Evans market report published this month, joining the “Mid-2013 Assessment and Outlook for the North American Market for HV and MV Instrument Transformers” and the “Mid-2013 Assessment and Outlook of the Market for Medium Voltage Fault Current Limiters.”

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New Report from Newton-Evans: Mid-2013 Assessment and Outlook for the North American Market for HV and MV Instrument Transformers

This new study of High Voltage and Medium Voltage Instrument Transformers shines a light on the growing requirement for additional current and voltage transformation equipment in electric power substations as more intelligent electronic devices are installed both in the substation and on the grid. From protective relays to substation meters to additional substation-based intelligent electronic devices, all require a reliable lower voltage, lower current power source to enable device operation.

According to Chuck Newton, “Newton-Evans Research undertook initial research on the topic of high voltage (HV) instrument transformers in mid-2012, then continued earlier this year for a private client study. Now, as follow-on to these efforts, Newton-Evans has extended its efforts into medium voltage (MV) instrument transformers during the second and early third quarters of 2013.”

Following are some key observations based on the HV/MV IT research program described in the report:

• By 2016, the combined HV/MV IT market will likely grow to more than $400 million annually with about $340-$370 million in U.S. expenditures and $50-$65 million spent by Canadian utilities and industry.
• Cumulative shipments of HV/MV instrument transformers within North America during 2013-2016 will approach $1.5 Billion.
• The manufacturing of HV IT equipment has a high “concentration ratio” (CR3) of suppliers.
• MV IT equipment manufacturing is less concentrated, with the medium voltage IT market addressed by several additional participants. (CR8).
• Sub-transmission level IT equipment, if viewed as a separate segment, would reveal additional market segment suppliers identified in the report.
• The spate of acquisitions a few years ago, involving the acquisition of the three leading “independent” HV IT equipment manufacturers (Trench, Ritz and Kuhlman) by Siemens, Alstom Grid and ABB, respectively, foreshadowed then-anticipated growth in this segment of the IT market in North America. Now, this T&D market segment continues to show promise in light of the construction and installation of new substations and quickening pace of grid modernization programs.

More information on this report, priced at $575.00,  can be found by clicking on the”Reports” tab.

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Fault Current Limiters: Newton-Evans Market Assessment and Overview through 2016

Newton-Evans Research Releases Report on Fault Current Limiters

This new (July 2013) publication is entitled: Mid-2013 Assessment and Outlook of the Market for Medium Voltage Fault Current Limiters. Newton-Evans began research work during the past year on a study of the U.S. market for Medium Voltage Fault Current Limiters (MV FCL). Initial work resulted in the aggregation of then-current secondary information on MV FCLs. Contact was established with the officials responsible for FCLs at the two known U.S.-based suppliers that have existing successful FCL installations (ABB and G&W). Both of these firms actively manufacture, market and provide support for their MV FCL products. Following an initial market assessment, Newton-Evans staff undertook telephone interviews with distribution engineering officials at 42 leading U.S. and Canadian Utilities to discuss use and plans for FCLs.

The resulting report is a 12 page assessment of the recent history and mid-term outlook for further development of this small segment of the electric power transmission and distribution equipment market. Synopsis of the two leading suppliers and a glimpse into the role superconductors may play now and in the mid-term to encourage further expansion of this market in both high voltage and medium voltage applications, and setting the stage for additional manufacturer participation.

This new report is priced at $275.00, with the market outlook through 2016 prepared by supplier shares, by world region, and by application (end-user), and is available for immediate download from our REPORTS tab.

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Top Quality Smart Grid and Grid Modernization Market Research Report Offerings for New Clients . .

Enabling Your Company to become “Market Smart.” Insights from Newton-Evans Research to Help You Succeed as a Smart Grid Market Leader

Through July, 2013, new clients can purchase a package of five widely acclaimed Newton-Evans Research studies for a total investment of $9,950.00. If purchased individually, these 2011-2013 reports would cost more than $26,000.00. An onsite briefing session covering these topics and more, tailored especially for your staff, can be provided for an additional $2,750.00.

If you are a first time smart grid market participant or simply out to improve your company’s performance and position in the growing smart grid marketplace, let Newton-Evans Research studies and resources help guide you to become “market smart.” We know the smart grid market; equipment, systems and services; segment market size and outlook; key players in each segment; usage patterns; buying trends; and more!

Take a look at our 35 year record of acclaimed electric power market studies. Review our client list. Read up on our methodology…scan the trade press coverage of our work, and you will definitely want to get on board with this special offer while it is available.

This Newton-Evans grouping of smart grid reports is based on hundreds of surveys and user interviews as well as discussions with suppliers, integration specialists and services providers. In most cases, these studies have their foundation in earlier decades of research for clients throughout the world.

Here are the definitive reports we have prepared over the past 30 months that will help your company to succeed in 2013 and beyond:

  • The World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems, Distribution Management Systems and Outage Management Systems in Electric Utilities: 2013-2015 (four volumes)
  • Global Study of Data Communications Usage Patterns and Plans in the Electric Power Industry: 2011-2015
  • Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace In Electric Utilities: 2012-2014 (Four volumes)
  • The Worldwide Smart Grid Market in 2011: A Reality Check and Five Year Outlook Through 2015 (in Three PDF volumes)
  • The World Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2011-2013 (Four volumes)

For orders placed during June, you will also receive a complimentary copy of the forthcoming mid- 2013 edition of Global CAPEX and O&M Expenditure Outlook for Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Investments: 2013-2014 – Funding Outlook for Smart Grid Development (based on June 2013 survey results).

Download an order form for this special offer here:
http://www.newton-evans.com/N-E_OrderForm-June2013.doc

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Newton-Evans Research Study of Precision Timing Requirements For Substation Modernization and Synchrophasor Installations Underway

Newton-Evans is currently conducting a two-pronged study to determine the perceived importance and likely trends affecting substation timing and time synchronization requirements.

Survey completion time estimate: 10-15 minutes

For Transmission Asset Owners and ISOs/RTOs:
This survey requests information on timing references used by utilities and plans to implement IEEE 1588, IEC 61588, and Power Profile C37.238-2011. Time synchronization is becoming ever more important in the development of transmission networks making use of substation modernization, smart substations, and other substation automation upgrades.

Here is the survey link for use by qualified transmission and substation engineers who wish to participate in our important study.
http://s.zoomerang.com/s/SubsTimeSynch_survey

For Substation Equipment and Intelligent Device Manufacturers:
This survey requests information on time references supported by substation devices, the role of GPS, support of PTP, and PTP adoption trends.
Here is the survey link for use by manufacturers of intelligent substation devices that require time synchronization.
http://s.zoomerang.com/s/PTP_vendor_survey

Thank you for your interest in this important study. All interested participants will receive an Executive Summary of our findings from both surveys.

Respondent Confidentiality: Always Guaranteed by virtue of our membership of more than 20 years in the Council of American Survey Research Organization

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Did You Know…

…On a typical day, the Newton-Evans “Events” calendar is viewed by readers in 12-20 countries?

…Newton-Evans has surveyed more than 1,500 utility engineering and operations officials on more than 15 topics over the past year alone? . . . While the majority of our survey respondents are typically from North American utilities, we have had survey participation from utility officials located in more than 40 countries in the past 12 months.

…At any time, Newton-Evans will likely have multiple (from 3, 4 or 5) concurrent market/product/technology studies underway with utilities, industrials, consultants and/or suppliers to better understand the North American, international or global electric power delivery and smart grid marketplace?

…While the company has a large array of multi-client reports and studies available (see the Reports section of the website), more than one-half of our business is conducted for individual clients (proprietary research and consulting services).

…Similarly, the company undertakes both qualitative and quantitative research, often combining both approaches in a single study. For those studies where low cost is a vital consideration, secondary research combined with supply-side interviews will often be a cost-effective approach to meet the informational needs of our clients.

…Newton-Evans’ research activities and observations are shared with industry media on an ongoing basis. During 2012 and so far into 2013, the Newton-Evans’ staff has authored many important articles included in a number of industry leading publications. Here is a sample listing of a few of our recent contributions and editorial summaries or news concerning our reports

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Full Plate of Research Projects Underway and Planned at Newton-Evans

As of early April, much of the 2013 T&D research work already completed or now underway for clients has once again centered on fundamentals required for a more resilient power grid— that is, on “infrastructure building blocks” rather than on pure automation or IT.

While many observers continue to overlook the critical role of “widgets” — basic T&D grid components – – – that have themselves benefited from technical advances over the past decade, our research programs have included a number of studies of these components.  During the first quarter of 2013, we have come to understand that more reliable and greener components available in the newest generation of core grid products are indeed making headway in the North American Grid and throughout the world.

Currently, Newton-Evans staff is fully engaged in client studies researching the emerging roles being played by such basic grid components as power fuses, capacitor bank switches, and even the various improvements in transformer oils being used in the millions of power and distribution transformer installations in North America.  We are about to begin a private study of high voltage circuit breaker trends.

We have not overlooked “smart grid” developments, of course, being the earliest industry marketing research firm to study T&D control systems . . . beginning in 1981.  We have recently released the four volume 2013-2015 edition of the World Market Outlook for EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS Systems.  For another private client we have already completed a detailed year-by-year history and eight year outlook for distribution automation in North America.

Another first quarter client study provided a major power utility client with the ability to measure the opinions, attitudes and experiences of other electric utility operations officials regarding the pros and cons of alternative data communications infrastructure choices for operational data acquisition. These report findings enabled our client to make an educated decision about how to proceed with its own communications infrastructure upgrades.

The findings presented in the project report were based on a survey sent out to large electric utilities around the world. Utility officials involved in communications network planning or oversight from more than 15 countries responded to the survey. While not all participating utilities operated control systems that are configured with multiple control centers, survey participation and informative feedback was welcomed from everyone.

Illustrative diagrams were included throughout the survey to guide respondents into thinking about four specific network communications scenarios being considered by the client utility. After being presented with the diagrams and descriptions, survey respondents were asked a series of questions including, “What scenario do you think will offer the best opportunity to accomplish the following:”

  • transition easily to an IP data infrastructure with better cost control and reduced latency
  • transition easily to a better data acquisition infrastructure using synchrophasors (PMUs)
  • easily update data points over the network & synchronize the updates with other systems

In early June, one of our clients will be hosting an exclusive afternoon reception and discussions of advanced cyber security and related compliance topics, with speakers from NIST and ENERNEX among others.  Newton-Evans will soon be sending out invitations to selected utility officials from the mid-Atlantic area.  Qualified senior utility officials, who may be interested in learning more about defense-in-depth file transfer techniques between various operational systems and multiple enterprise systems, can contact us for an invitation to attend this small group event which will be held in suburban D.C.  The seating for this event is limited; there is no cost for attendees (other than transportation).

This event promises to be another great way to learn more about the implications of the new 2013 cyber security executive order for critical infrastructure, as well as receiving updates to NERC compliance topics, and how advanced cyber technology developments will transfer from one usage sector to the electric power industry to secure file transfers between operational control systems and IT systems.

During the summer months, Newton-Evans will be “going global” once again with its fifth edition of the CAPEX/OPEX outlook among the world’s electric power utility community.  Concurrently, we expect to be underway with a major update to our historical compilations of distribution automation developments and trends.

Newton-Evans’ CEO, Chuck Newton, has been selected by Energy Central to serve as the Operations Track Chair for this autumn’s KNOWLEDGE 2013 Conference, scheduled for November 4-6, 2013 at the exclusive Broadmoor Hotel and Resort in Colorado.  We are looking for a few additional senior level Operations/Smart Grid people to serve as program committee members.  The KNOWLEDGE Conference is known for its attractiveness to C-Level executives and other senior managers who are afforded the opportunity to have open discussions and dialogue with peers on IT and CIS topics in a relaxed setting.  We hope to make the Operations track a vital new component of this exclusive conference.

Finally, during the first quarter, Newton-Evans contributed articles to the following publications:

Intelligent Utility (March 13, 2013 edition) “Current, Planned Global Deployment of Analytics Capabilities”

Utility Horizons Quarterly (April, 2013 edition) “Usage Patterns and Trends in Electric Utility Automation”

Transmission & Distributions WORLD (May 2013 edition) “Special Supplement Communications: “Assessment and Outlook for Telecommunications Networks and Protocols in the World’s Electric Power Utilities”

In addition, our latest global control systems studies received coverage on a number of financial news sites around the world as well as in the following industry publications:

Transmission and Distribution World – Online – Feb 20, 2013
“Global Spending for Power Delivery Control Systems for 2012-2015 Likely to Exceed $5.5 Billion” http://tdworld.com/smart_utility/newton-evans-delivery-study-0213/#ixzz2LT9GejmD

Renew Grid – February 19, 2013
“North American Utilities Lagging On Standards And Best Practices”
http://www.renew-grid.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.9586#.USUiB1f_qsk

Smart Grid News – February 15, 2013
“Study reveals U.S. utilities falling behind in adoption of essential best practices”
http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Technologies_Standards/Study-reveals-U-S-utilities-falling-behind-in-adoption-of-essential-best-practices-5517.html/?fpt#.USUhWlf_qsk

PowerGrid International, January, 2013
“Newton-Evans:  EMS, SCADA, DMS, OMS Likely to See Much Growth Through 2015″
Print Magazine article (page 20)

 

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Global Spending for Power Delivery Control Systems for 2012-2015 Likely to Exceed $5.5 Billion . . . If Economic Outlook Strengthens, Market Could Reach $6.5 Billion

Standards Compliance for Many Systems Components Important Internationally while Surprisingly High Level of Interest in NERC CIP Compliance Reported From Outside of North America

 

February 12, 2013.  Ellicott City, Maryland.  The Newton-Evans Research Company has released its 2013 edition of a four volume study of EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS usage patterns in the world’s electric power utilities.  This release marks the tenth such research program in this series completed since 1984.

Newton-Evans staff conducted surveys and interviews with more than 150 utilities in 37 countries.  These included many of the TOP 100 utilities in the world.  Among the observations gleaned from interviews and surveys with these utilities, along with views from control systems integrators and power delivery consultants are these:

Rationale for Increased Spending on Control Systems:  A number of factors were cited by participants as the basis to support the increased levels of systems augmentation, upgrades and replacements over the next 36 months including the need for new applications to improve operator visualization and situational awareness; adding redundancy to communications pathing; improving cyber defenses; complying with new regulatory mandates; and in some instances, a desire to combine two or more systems onto common platforms.

Differences in International and North American perspectives and approaches to Standards for control systems:  The role of international standards is more important to utilities outside of North America than to domestic utilities.  While IEC standards compliance dominates systems procurements and communications approaches internationally, in North America the roles of IEEE, ANSI, NEMA and de facto standards play a much more important role. Forty percent of international respondents indicated having a requirement for OPC (Open Platform Communications) compared with only 27% of North American replies.  Similarly SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) was viewed as being much more important internationally than was reported by North American respondents. Two-thirds of international utilities and 19% of North American utilities reported interest in using CIM standards for model maintenance related to distribution circuit design transfers from GIS (Geographical Information Systems) to DMS.

Similar Levels of Concern with Cyber Security: Eighty percent of North American utility officials and 82% of international utilities cited a need for cyber security features to be designed as an integral part of their control systems, not provided as an “add-on.”   Interestingly, many international utilities are modeling their cyber security mandates for power delivery control systems on North America’s NERC CIPs.  Across the world, several utilities also called for control systems integrators to do more to make NERC (and other) compliance and regulatory reporting easier and more automated.

Third Party Control Center Services:  Consulting services are being used and more likely to be relied upon to assist with expanding NERC CIP compliance issues, for the conduct of vulnerability assessments and for consulting on smart grid topics.  In addition, several comments were directed toward the increased reliance on third party services to assist utilities as they cope with workforce retirements in their operational control centers.

Role of Operational Analytics:  Noticeable differences in current and planned usage of operational analytics were found for asset analytics, DMS analytics (load and voltage balancing et al) and customer analytics.  Each of these are now being used (or soon will be) more widely internationally than in North American utilities.  OMS analytics (e.g., fault location) are of similar levels of usage and plans among both groups.

The four volume study includes separate reports on (1) North America with details by type of utility, (2) International community with detailed findings by world region; (3) Profiles of leading systems integrators and (4) World regional market outlook for each type of power delivery control systems through 2015.  The complete set of reports is available for $7,500.00, and individual reports are also available for online ordering.

Further information on this new series entitled The World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems, Distribution Management Systems and Outage Management Systems in Electric Utilities:  2013-2015 is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit us at www.newton-evans.com  to order this series or any of more than 100 related reports. Chuck Newton can be reached at cnewton@newton-evans.com.

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Release of North American 2013-2015 EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS Report – Now Available for Secure Online Purchase and Download!

EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS Systems to be Significantly Upgraded or Replaced to Meet New Regulations and to Provide Improved Situational Awareness and Visualization Tools for Systems Operators

Role of Operational Analytics for Outage Management Growing Rapidly in Attempts to Improve Reliability and Minimize Outage Duration and Frequency

January 25, 2013.  Ellicott City, Maryland.  The Newton-Evans Research Company has released highlights of findings from its newly published study of EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS usage patterns in North American electric power utilities, one of four component reports of the company’s 2013 global market assessment series on power delivery operational control systems.

Among the observations gleaned from interviews and surveys with more than 110 participants from a wide range of participating U.S. and Canadian electric utilities, are the following:

  • Plans call for upgrades or retrofits to EMS (energy management systems) and SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) systems among a large percentage of these utilities.  Related industry expenditures will likely increase by more than 25% over the next 24 months.
  • Plans for procurements of new DMS (distribution management systems) and OMS (Outage management systems) are significant, with more than one quarter planning to purchase a new or replacement DMS and nearly one-in-five planning OMS procurements.
  • Eighty percent of utility officials cited a need for cyber security features to be designed as an integral part of their control systems, not provided as an “add-on.”  Most officials also called for control systems integrators to do more to make NERC compliance and regulatory reporting easier and more automated.
  • Third party services are being used and relied upon to assist with NERC CIP compliance issues, for the conduct of vulnerability assessments and for consulting on smart grid topics.
  • DNP 3 continues to be the most prevalent operational data communications protocol throughout North American electric power utilities.  Plans call for continuing the use of DNP 3 for the foreseeable future, among the majority of these utilities.   Increased use of IEC 61850 for intra-substation communications has been reported in newly constructed transmission substations.

The North American report is one of four volumes of study completed for the company’s fourteenth bi-annual series of EMS, SCADA and DMS studies published by Newton-Evans Research since 1984.

Further information on this new series entitled The World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems and Distribution Management Systems in Electric Utilities:  2013-2015 is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit us at www.newton-evans.com  or to order any of more than 100 related reports.  For readers interested in purchasing this new series please call or email the company for special introductory pricing. Chuck Newton can be reached at cnewton@newton-evans.com.

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Preliminary Findings Point to Solid Growth for EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS during 2013-2015 among North American Electric Power Utilities

Real-time Inter-systems Communications Capabilities Lag, but DNP 3 Continues as the Preferred Protocol for Operational Data Communications

December 1, 2012. Ellicott City, Maryland. The Newton-Evans Research Company has released interim findings from its current study of EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS usage patterns in North American electric power utilities, one of four components of the company’s global market assessment series on operational control systems.

Among the initial observations gleaned from interviews and surveys with 50 initial participants from a wide range of participating U.S. and Canadian electric utilities, are the following:

  • Energy Management Systems (EMS), supervisory control systems (SCADA), distribution management systems (DMS) and outage management systems (OMS) are likely to show very good growth over the 2013-2015 years, in light of the positive responses from this initial group of utility responses.
  • Plans call for upgrades or retrofits to SCADA systems among a large percentage of these utilities
  • Plans for procurements of new DMS and (OMS) are significant, with more than one quarter planning to purchase a new or replacement DMS and nearly one-in-five planning OMS procurements.
  • There is interest shown among one-third of these early respondents to combining DMS and OMS on a common platform, but cyber security concerns have been voiced by several operations officials looking into such system combinations.
  • Third party services are being used and relied upon to assist with NERC CIP compliance issues and for the conduct of vulnerability assessments.
  • DNP 3 continues to be the most prevalent operational data communications protocol throughout North American electric power utilities. Plans call for continuing the use of DNP 3 for the foreseeable future, among the majority of these utilities.
  • More than a score of additional topics are surveyed in this new study including the impact of NERC CIP compliance on budgets and workloads; distribution network model maintenance; hardware maintenance responsibilities and preferences for new applications procurement methods.

The North American report is one of four volumes being produced for the company’s fourteenth bi- annual series of EMS, SCADA and DMS studies published by Newton-Evans Research since 1984. Work on the other three volumes is underway; the entire series will be published in January 2013.

Further information on this new series entitled The World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems and Distribution Management Systems in Electric Utilities: 2013-2015 is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit us at www.newton-evans.comor to order any of more than 100 related reports. For readers interested in purchasing this new series please call or email the company for special introductory pricing. Chuck Newton can be reached at cnewton@newton-evans.com.

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Newton-Evans Finds Major Electric Power Operations and Enterprise Software and Systems Sales in U.S. Now Exceeds $1.1 Billion

Three year growth from 2011 to 2014 projected at 26% for the entire group of ten key operational topics. Cyber Security Software Growth to outpace Other Topics in this series

November 12, 2012. Ellicott City, Maryland. The Newton-Evans Research Company has announced its publication of a set of 10 U.S. market summaries covering operational systems and software used by American electric power utilities. The newest series of market overview reports (executive two-page market summaries) includes supplier listings, representative products, and estimated market size for each topic, vendor market share estimates, and market outlook through 2014. For several topics, typical software and/or system cost ranges are also provided. Electric utilities accounted for more than 95% of all purchases of control-related systems and utility CIS software. Total 2011spending for the systems and packaged software included in this series exceeded $1.1 billion, with an even larger amount spent internally or with developers for custom development and maintenance of these systems and applications software packages.

The Control Systems series ($975.00) includes U.S. market size, market share estimates and market outlook for these ten topics: CS01 – EMS Systems Integration, CS02 – Distribution SCADA, CS03 – Geographic Information Systems, CS04 – Customer Information Systems, CS05 – Outage Management Systems, CS06 – Meter Data Management Systems. CS07 – Mobile Workforce Management Systems, CS08 – Advanced Distribution Automation, CS09 – Electric Power Market Management Systems and CS10 – Cyber Security Software for Control Systems

Other T&D topical series published this year by Newton-Evans Research are also available including: substation automation (13 market segment snapshots), power transformers (11 market segment snapshots), distribution automation (12 market segment snapshots), protective relays (8 market segment snapshots), high voltage equipment (15 market segment snapshots) and medium voltage equipment (20 market segment snapshots). Forty companies represent the majority of sales of products, systems and software covered in the series. This group of market overviews is the final series to be published in 2012. In total, 84 T&D-related equipment, software and services market segment overviews are available.

Total shipment values for the 84 components of the Newton-Evans U.S. T&D market overview series exceeded $15 Billion in 2011, and are projected to reach $18 Billion by 2014. The report summaries can be purchased online, either individually or by topical series. More than 200 suppliers are each represented in at least one report.

Further information on this new series of U.S. electric power transmission and distribution market snapshots is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit the specific Newton-Evans website page at http://www.newton-evans.com/wp-content/uploads/MktSummarySrs-2012-brochure.pdf for a brochure or to order any of the related report series or individual report summaries online. For those interested in subscriptions to multiple summary report series, please call or email us for special introductory pricing offers. Khristina Newton can be reached at knewton@newton-evans.com .

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NEMA features Newton-Evans Research Findings Article in “Economic Spotlight” for November 2012 Edition of Electroindustry Magazine

The article is entitled “An Overview of the U.S. Market For Transmission and Distribution Equipment and Systems” and was written exclusively for NEMA, the National Electrical Manufacturers’ Association. The article can be found here http://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/NEMA/g29979_nema_ei_nov12/#/32. The timing of the article is coincidental with the release this week of the final portion of the Newton-Evans series of 90 brief market summaries on discrete infrastructure components of the nation’s transmission and distribution grid and supporting automation and control systems. The final group of market summaries covers the operational control systems and supporting enterprise systems used by electric utilities. The new series will be available on-line on November 9, 2012.

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Estimated U.S. Sales of HV Transmission Substation Equipment well over $5 Billion in 2011, (excluding power transformers) – Forecast to Increase by 19% to $6 Billion by 2014.

High Manufacturing Concentration Ratios Noted – Four Top Tier HV Equipment Manufacturers in Each Category Hold from 70%-95% Combined Shares

October 19, 2012. Ellicott City, Maryland. The Newton-Evans Research Company has announced its publication of a set of 15 U.S. high voltage equipment market two-page summaries. The new series of market overview reports (executive market summaries) includes supplier listings, representative products, and estimated market size for each topic, vendor market share estimates, and market outlook through 2014. For many topics, equipment/system cost ranges are also provided. Electric utilities accounted for about 88-90% of all purchases of high voltage equipment, used mainly in transmission class electric power substations.

Unlike other categories in the series, the HV equipment market is characterized by a specialized group of manufacturers, resulting in a high degree of market shares held by these few companies. There are two manufacturing concentration ratios used by economists. The first, known as CR4 ratios, is a measure of U.S. market dominance in the hands of four suppliers/manufacturers. The second calculation is the CR8, a measure of U.S. market dominance among up to eight leading manufacturers.

For each high voltage equipment category, Newton-Evans has found that more than 70% of each of the covered HV equipment markets is shared by four or fewer companies. The CR8 ratio found in this study indicates that the market share for eight suppliers (or fewer) is nearly 100% in each category, as calculated by Newton-Evans Research. This is different from other T&D categories studied this year, wherein significantly lower concentration ratios are found at the CR4 level.

The High Voltage Equipment series ($975.00) includes U.S. market size, market share estimates and market outlook for these 15 HV equipment categories: HV01 – FACTS and RPC, HV02 – HVDC, HV03 – Air Insulated Substations, HV04 – Gas Insulated Substations, HV05 – Air Insulated Switchgear, HV06 – Gas Insulated Switchgear, HV07 – High Voltage Bushings, HV08 – High Voltage Capacitors, HV09 – High Voltage Circuit Breakers, HV10 – HV Disconnect Switches, HV11 – High Voltage Circuit Switchers, HV12 – HV Instrument Transformers, HV13 – Air Core Reactors, HV14 – HV Surge Arrestors, HV15 – Specialized Generator Circuit Breakers.

Other topical series published this year by Newton-Evans Research are also available including: substation automation (13 market segment snapshots), power transformers (11 market segment snapshots), distribution automation (12 market segment snapshots), protective relays (8 market segment snapshots), and medium voltage equipment (20 market overviews). The final series to be released in November will cover a range of T&D control systems (11 market segment overviews).

Further information on this new series of more than 90 U.S. electric power transmission and distribution market snapshots is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit www.newton-evans.com for a brochure or to order any of the related report series or individual report summaries online. For those interested in subscriptions to multiple report series, please call or email us for special introductory pricing offers. Khristina Newton can be reached at knewton@newton-evans.com.

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October Update to The Newton-Evans Outlook for Electric Utility Procurements Over 2013-2015

On June 25, and again on August 1, 2012, we published articles on our view of the global economic outlook and its effect on spending for electric power infrastructure and automation. We have now completed an early fourth quarter review of economic and financial conditions based on external resources such as the World Bank. As a result, we continue to retain a cautiously optimistic view for most smart grid market segments. We reported quite accurately on these developments in the mid-2011 Newton-Evans study (Smart Grid: A Reality Check) and again at mid-year this year for these developments:

  • • Slowdown in China
  • • Critical financial and economic issues facing the Eurozone
  • • Minimal growth in Western Europe outside of the Eurozone
  • • Retrenchment in economic outlook for the United States (as it remains the single largest country market in the world).
  • • World Bank and NGO outlook that suggested continuation of low growth.

At this time, we need to add three more specific concerns to this list:

  • • Concerns with Regional Stability in the Middle Eastern nations:
  • • Slowdown in Growth Projections for other East Asia Countries- in addition to China
  • • Inaction by the U.S. Congress on Fiscal and Energy Policy Matters

Concerns with the Middle East

The ongoing tension in some of the Middle Eastern nations is disruptive in and of itself and could have negative effects on infrastructure investment throughout the entire region. There has been some pullback in previously announced plans to procure hundreds of millions of dollars of systems, equipment, power stations and substation projects in countries with political instability at this time. While still relatively minor, such project deferrals reflect both the growing regional concerns over Iran and Syria, and the still unsettled issues in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. The World Bank’s most recent outlook for the region suggests further retrenchment to earlier GDP growth forecasts.

Slowdown in China and East Asia in General

Secondly, East Asian GDP growth rate forecasts have again been cut by the World Bank, as recently as October 7. World Bank officials now anticipate that economic growth in Asia will be 7.2% in 2012, down from the 7.6% projection made in May and lower than last year’s rate of 8.2%. However, growth is expected to rebound next year, spurred by strong demand in developing countries. Some countries, including Vietnam and Mongolia, are outpacing others in their electricity infrastructure modernization investments this year. For 2013, a good bit of the reliability of the outlook will also depend on some sort of rebound in exports of Asian goods and services to the Eurozone countries and to North America.

Inaction by the U.S. Congress

Thirdly, the ongoing failure of the United States Congress to enact both sane fiscal policy measures and a cohesive long term energy policy could become a further drag on the region’s outlook, with little time remaining for the Congress to act before automatic federal spending cuts take effect. If no budget agreements are reached by the end of 2012, this in itself will have an important negative effect on planned electric power industry expenditures during 2013 by at least some of the major investor-owned utilities, and an even more important negative effect on public utilities. In turn this will cause a CAPEX decrease similar to the falloff in 2009 and 2010 from the devastating 2008 financial crisis.

It’s Not All Bad News

On the positive side, sub-Saharan African countries continue to make very good progress with the regional GDP up over six percent again to date in 2012. Regional investments in electric power plant construction, transmission and distribution infrastructure and the addition of millions of new electricity customers over the 2010-2012 period auger well for further near-term and mid-term growth, despite some regional political issues, and in spite of the pessimistic outlook in some other global regions. However, the price-based concerns of these developing nations will favor lower-cost, faster-delivery Asian exporters over some Western companies whose emphasis is on equipment quality and reliability.

“A third of African countries will grow at or above 6 percent with some of the fastest growing ones buoyed by new mineral exports and by factors such as the return to peace in Côte d’Ivoire, as well as strong growth in countries such as Ethiopia,” said World Bank Vice-President for Africa, Makhtar Diop. “An important indicator of how Africa is on the move is that investor interest in the region remains strong, with $31 billion in foreign direct investment flows expected this year, despite difficult global conditions.” Newton-Evans believes that at least several billions of these dollars are flowing into electric power infrastructure and automation projects in the sub-Saharan region.

Latin America – Still Growing

Growth for the Latin America and the Caribbean region was projected at mid-year by the World Bank to slow to 3.5 percent for the full 12 months of 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. Improved financial conditions and growth outside the region “…should contribute to a modest acceleration of growth to 4.1 percent in 2013 before easing modestly in 2014” according to the World Bank. Nonetheless, electric power industry expenditures for the region have continued to be relatively strong over the past 36 months, as reported to Newton-Evans by major manufacturers for the company’s Smart Grid “Reality Check” market studies.

Overall, we see no reason yet to dramatically change our overall outlook for smart grid expenditures or for infrastructure CAPEX spending over the coming 24 months. Western nations likely will continue their investments in smart grid programs with annual growth in such investments hovering in the mid-upper single digits. For the developing nations of the Southern Hemisphere and a good portion of Asia, smart grid investment will likely be even higher, perhaps growing as much as 10-12% over the same period.

New Studies Underway

Newton-Evans Research will again conduct its year-end survey of industry manufacturers and systems integration firms concerning their views of the global outlook (by region) during the fourth quarter. This will supplement our findings from dozens of countries regarding their plans for large operational control systems (2013-2015 World Market for EMS, SCADA and DMS) and our fourth study on utility CAPEX covering the 2013-2014 outlook period (Global CAPEX and O&M Expenditure Outlook for Electric Power T&D Investments: 2013-2014). Once these studies are completed, we will update our outlook for the upcoming periods for our readers at the beginning of the New Year and in our next MARKET TRENDS DIGEST edition.

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Newton-Evans Research Releases Nine Market Snapshot Reports on Distribution Automation Topics Covering the Electric Power Industry in the United States

Estimated U.S. Sales of Distribution Automation Components, Including Equipment and Services, Accounted for more than $500 Million in 2011, Forecast to Increase to $704 Million by 2014.

August 1, 2012. Ellicott City, Maryland. The Newton-Evans Research Company has announced its publication of a set of nine U.S. distribution automation market two-page summaries. The new series of market overview reports (executive market summaries) includes supplier listings, representative products, and estimated market size for each topic, vendor market share estimates and market outlook through 2014. Electric utilities accounted for about 87% of all purchases of distribution automation related goods and services. A majority of distribution automation equipment purchased by American utilities and industrial firms currently is produced in the United States.

The Distribution Automation series ($975.00 for all report summaries or $150.00 per individual report summary) includes U.S. market size, market share estimates and market outlook for these 9 DA product and service categories: DA01 – Automatic Circuit Recloser Controls; DA02 – DA/DMS System Components (including distribution network analysis; distribution network condition monitoring and fault location and characterization) ; DA03 – Voltage Regulators; DA04 – Capacitor Bank Controllers; DA05 – Fault Indicators (covering both fault current indicators and faulted circuit indicators); DA06 – Pole Top RTUs; DA07 – Line Mounted Monitoring Devices; DA08 – Communications Components for DA (covering PLC/DLC; cellular and 900Mhz); and, DA09 – Engineering Services for Distribution Automation Projects (covering consulting engineering services, related services provided by manufacturers; DA services provided by smart grid consulting specialists).

Other topical series currently available include: substation automation (13 market segment snapshots), power transformers (11 market segment snapshots), protective relays (8 market segment snapshots), and medium voltage equipment (20 market overviews). The final two series to be released later in August cover high voltage equipment market summaries (16 market segment overviews) and T&D control systems (11 market segment overviews).

Further information on this new series of U.S. T&D market snapshots is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit www.newton-evans.com for a brochure or to order any of the related report series or more than 90 planned individual report summaries online. For those interested in subscriptions to multiple report series, please call or email us for special introductory pricing offers. Khristina Newton can be reached at knewton@newton-evans.com.

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U.S. Sales of Medium Voltage Equipment, Components and Related Services Accounted for More than $10 Billion in 2011, Forecast to Increase to $11.5 Billion in 2014.

Newton-Evans Research Publishes Set of U.S. Electric Power T&D Market Summaries for 18 specific medium voltage distribution equipment categories.

The Newton-Evans Research Company has announced the publication of a series of 18 electric power distribution market two-page snapshot market summaries. The new series of market overview reports (executive market summaries) includes supplier listings, representative products, estimated market size for each topic, vendor market share estimates, and a market outlook through 2014. Electric utilities accounted for nearly two-thirds of purchases of the medium voltage product categories in this series. A majority of the included equipment and products were produced in the United States.

The Medium Voltage equipment series is priced at $1,500 for all 18 market summary reports, or at $150.00 for individual report summaries. Each snapshot report include estimates of U.S. market size, supplier market share and outlook through 2014 for these categories:
MV01 – Air Insulated Metal Clad Switchgear
MV02 – MV Motor Controllers
MV03 – MV Gas Insulated Switchgear
MV04 – Automatic Circuit Reclosers
MV05 – Outdoor Distribution Circuit Breakers (5-38kv)
MV06 – Load Interrupter Switchgear
MV07 – Overhead Disconnect Switches (15-38kv)
MV08 – Sectionalizers
MV09 – Fused Cutouts
MV10 – Pad Mounted Switchgear
MV11 – Submersible Switchgear
MV12 – Bus Duct and Bus Bar
MV13 – Substation Class Pad Mounted Capacitors
MV14 – Current/Instrument Transformers
MV15 – Fault Current Limiters
MV16 – Fault Current Indicators and Faulted Circuit Indicators
MV17 – Current Limiting Fuses and Fuse Links
MV18 – Surge Arresters.

Other U.S. T&D market snapshot series currently available include power transformers (11 market segment snapshots), protective relays (8 market segment snapshots) and substation automation components (13 market segment snapshots). The next series to be released covers Distribution Automation in 12 market summaries, and is planned for publication later in July, 2012.

Click Here for a brochure or to place an order for any of the related report series or more than 50 currently available individual T&D report summaries online. For subscriptions to all of the currently available report series, please call or email us for special introductory pricing offers info@newton-evans.com

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Looking at Smart Grid Opportunities for Growth at Mid-Year 2012 ….What stands in the Way?

Why we believe the near-term investment priority for utilities of all types must be cyber security-related!

(Security is not always considered part of smart grid spending)!

First and foremost what stands in the way of more significant growth in smart grid-related investment is the state of the global economy. It isn’t totally doom and gloom, but then…. currently, all eyes are on Western Europe, and on the harbingers for economic growth or lack thereof, in North America, the slowdown in China and other parts of Asia. In mid-2011, we took a relatively cautious view of the outlook for smart grid investments, as many utilities simply could not afford to make significant investments then or now.

Our mid-2011 research series entitled The Worldwide Smart Grid Market in 2011: A Reality Check and Five Year Outlook Through 2015 was well received by key, clear-headed market participants and other observers of the smart grid marketplace, even though we had suggested that real growth in smart grid would be spaced out over many years, and overall smart grid market investments would grow only in the mid-upper single digits (on average) each year.

Well, let’s take a look at what is happening around the world that causes Newton-Evans to continue to retain a cautiously optimistic view of most smart grid market segments. We reported quite accurately on these likely developments in that mid-2011 study:

  • Slowdown in China
  • Critical financial and economic issues facing the Eurozone
  • Minimal growth in Western Europe outside of the Eurozone
  • Retrenchment in economic outlook for the United States (as it remains the single largest country market in the world).
  • World Bank and NGO outlook that suggested continuation of low growth.

A few weeks back, there were some trade press headlines suggesting (incorrectly) that the smart grid was approaching umpteen billion dollars. To put much faith in that fairy tale of a report summary would be dangerous and misleading, as others have also stated. The true global market for all segments of smart grid activity (not counting infrastructure) relating to transmission, distribution, and consumer premises activities (AMI, DR, and the like), currently amounts to about 5% of that rose-colored glass outlook, or about $10 billion USD in our considered view. This amount includes all spending for control center systems, automation programs for substations and distribution networks, smart devices to monitor transmission activities, demand response and advanced metering infrastructure. This amount also includes all relevant operational software required to manage the data acquisition and analysis of real-time and historical data.

Certainly, unless the nation and the world lose the little positive economic momentum we now enjoy, there will very likely be a continuation of the mid-to-upper single digit growth rate overall for smart grid activities during the remainder of 2012 and through 2013. Some activities will grow faster (like DA), while others remain sluggish. Much hinges on the various steps being considered or enacted by regulatory and legislative bodies in countries around the world. A high percentage of these deliberations will consider the overall economic effects that such decisions will have on utilities and consumers of all types. Some major utilities will continue to forge ahead, as the daily webinars indicate they are doing. However, it is a rather small group of utilities that currently accounts for a very high proportion of smart grid spending, not just in North America, but globally. The majority of others are still either taking a “wait and see” attitude or hoping that their coffers will soon show more profitability that will enable those companies to make significant investments in one or multiple smart grid segments.

I am a believer that a lot of “wannabe” smart grid investments are being diverted, or will very soon have to be diverted, to better protecting utility IT and operational cyber assets, and this simply will take precedence over the requirements to upgrade equipment, smarten up field monitoring and control devices, revamp communications network architecture and re-energize the electric power grid itself.

This year, Newton-Evans Research has already undertaken a number of national and international studies of cybersecurity issues, and the findings lead us to believe that the single most critical issue facing utilities of all types is the near-term requirement to shore up cyber defenses, policies and procedures. Unfortunately, these cyber security investments will likely continue to usurp funding from other smart grid activities, but this investment must be a priority, in my opinion.

Keep in mind the first priority of every electric power utility – “keeping the lights on” means protecting the system at all costs. Thus, improving system protection and control procedures together with strengthening cyber defenses may well be the key aspects of smart grid development in the near term. We are “robbing Peter to pay Paul” in some real sense, but this is probably a very judicious way to invest for the remainder of 2012, based on what the “surveys say” at this time.

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P.S. Looking for an opportunity to share in our findings? Join your colleagues in the power industry who have benefited from a full year of having accurate descriptions of the smart grid market and its constituent sub-markets. If you haven’t already subscribed to The Worldwide Smart Grid Market in 2011: A Reality Check and Five Year Outlook Through 2015 this would be a great time to do so. (See the reports page to order (http://www.newton-evans.com/reports/). Keep in mind that we will send the mid-2012 update with our compliments – at no extra charge – as soon as it is available.