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Early Survey Findings Indicate Continuing Growth in Substation Modernization Investment

Substation Data Communications Protocol Usage Continues to Find Heavy Reliance on DNP3 in North America

July 18, 2017, Ellicott City, MD. The Newton-Evans Research Company is well underway with its triennial tracking study of change occurring in the world’s electric power substations entitled: The World Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2017-2020. The study will compare the new round of research findings with several earlier substation modernization tracking studies conducted by the company since 1986. More than 75 large and mid-size North American electric power utilities will be participating in this multi-part study, before the focus turns to surveying the International community of electric power utilities in August.

Newton-Evans Research will estimate and forecast the 2017-2020 outlook for North American spending for substation automation and integration programs. Earlier estimates derived from the similar 2013 study stood at $690 million, with an overall potential North American market size of nearly $10 billion. Global potential spending for substation modernization programs had been estimated at about $38-$40 billion. This amount includes spending for a wide range of intelligent substation-resident equipment and devices and the manpower to undertake the systems integration efforts required.

Preliminary Observations:

  • It is becoming more difficult to separate substation product classifications as equipment manufacturers tout their offerings as “multifunctional” and the product positioning of many intelligent electronic devices now cuts across multiple product classifications.
  • The outlook for increased reliance on commercial services providers working in substation modernization activities remains strongly positive. Third party engineering and integration service firms have continued to make significant strides in winning substation automation-related business, from planning to design to construction and to technical equipment installation.
  • Utility manpower shortages and funding issues continue to negatively impact the ability of technology supplier companies to engage utilities for other than short-term automation requirements. In states and provinces wherein regulators have approved strong incentives for reliability improvements or for transmission line extensions, the spending outlook is robust, despite a lack of clarity in some energy policy development activities of federal U.S. agencies.
  • In general, retrofit substations will be upgraded as warranted during the outlook period, based on regional load growth, load criticality to customers, and related distributed generation and renewables siting developments. New substations will increasingly be designed and constructed as integrated and automated remote assets for the utility. The current study finds the bulk of available substation automation budgets likely to be spent for new substations, with continued emphasis on the bulk power system.
  • The use of encryption techniques for transmission of substation data continues to grow, at least for wide area data exchanges between control centers and substations as evidenced by early survey returns received by Newton-Evans. This continues a long-term pattern of increased use of encryption for sensitive data communications between and among intelligent devices within the substation and from the substation to the control center.

Additional topics being covered in the four-volume series of substation automation studies include in-depth coverage of several data communications topics, vendor security certification requirements, external systems linkages to the substation, preferred equipment suppliers, substation timing requirements, and an assessment of how North America’s electric power substations are positioned along a three-step path to complete automation.

Additional information on the North American substation market report, and the other three reports comprising the four-volume study “Worldwide Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2017-2020” is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone 1-410-465-7316, email: info@newton-evans.com. For a brochure on this series, download our brochure: http://www.newton-evans.com/brochures/2017SSABrochure-June2017.pdf

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Multi-Part Newton-Evans Research Study Reveals Significant Growth Likely for Advanced DMS Systems and Applications

The Newton-Evans Research Company continues to assess its findings from the firm’s comprehensive 2017 study of EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS usage patterns among utilities from more than 30 countries.

Current status of Advanced DMS (ADMS)
The Newton-Evans’ survey asked respondents to indicate whether their DMS installation provided SCADA, DMS and OMS functionality together in one user interface and this served as our definition of ADMS for this study.

Overall, 69% of international electric utilities who responded to the survey either currently have or plan to have an Advanced DMS that provides SCADA, DMS and OMS together in one user interface. Thirty-five percent currently have ADMS, and 34% plan to implement ADMS in the near future.

This contrasts with only 9% of North American survey respondents who reported having an ADMS as of the first quarter of 2017. Twenty percent of North American respondents indicated they will have an ADMS by the end of 2019, and another 17% indicated plans for implementing an ADMS sometime after 2019. Overall, 46% of the North American sample either currently has or plans to have an ADMS. Some of the North American sample included “transmission-only” utilities/ISOs.

fig. 1

Continue reading Multi-Part Newton-Evans Research Study Reveals Significant Growth Likely for Advanced DMS Systems and Applications

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Newton-Evans Study Finds Heavy Use of IP/MPLS and Continued Reliance on Utility-Operated Telecommunications Networks for EMS/SCADA and DMS Systems

The latest findings from the Newton-Evans Research Company study of control systems used in the electric power industry point to heavy reliance on IP/MPLS networks for wide area communications from substations and other field locations to central site control systems.

Reliance on IP/MPLS Networks
Sixty-seven percent of international respondents use Internet Protocol/Multi-Protocol Label Switching (IP/MPLS) technology for communication from the substation to the external host/network. Thirty percent use a mix of T1/E1 and/or SONET/SDH and packet networks. It is likely that MPLS-TP (Transport Profile) will see increased use in the next Newton-Evans control systems study scheduled for 2019.

Forty-nine percent of North American respondents use IP/MPLS network technology for communication from the substation to the external host/network. Thirty-seven percent use T1/E1 and 33% use SONET/SDH, followed by 27% who use Carrier Ethernet. Often, more than one type of network is used. Half of North America’s investor owned utilities in the survey continue to use T1/E1, and over half of them use IP/MPLS as well.

Continue reading Newton-Evans Study Finds Heavy Use of IP/MPLS and Continued Reliance on Utility-Operated Telecommunications Networks for EMS/SCADA and DMS Systems

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Newton-Evans Study Indicates Similarities in Plans for Full Digital Substations and Differences for Condition-Based Maintenance Programs Among Electric Utilities

Newton-Evans Research Company continues to assess findings from its six-month research study and survey of protective relay usage patterns in the world community of electric power utilities. Insights received from 114 large and mid-sized utilities in 28 countries point to some interesting differences in plans for implementation of the “full digital substation” concept and to increased use of condition-based maintenance (CBM) strategies for protective relays.

Implementation of the “Full Digital Substation” Concept:
Thirty-four percent of the survey respondents from the U.S. and Canada agreed with the statement, “By year end 2018, we will be well on our way toward implementing the full digital substation concept.” Thirty-seven percent disagreed with the statement. Forty percent of small North American utilities (fewer than 100,000 customers) agreed with the statement, but only 18% of large utilities (more than 500,000 customers) concurred.

Forty-three percent of the international respondents agreed with the same statement, which is slightly more than what was observed in North America (34%). Twenty-five percent had no opinion, and another 25% disagreed. Importantly, the typical international utility respondent was somewhat larger (in terms of customers served) than their North American counterpart.

“By year end 2018, we will be well on our way toward implementing the full digital substation concept”

Continue reading Newton-Evans Study Indicates Similarities in Plans for Full Digital Substations and Differences for Condition-Based Maintenance Programs Among Electric Utilities

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Newton-Evans Study Finds Differences in Spending Plans for Electric Utility Control Systems Over the 2017-2019 Years

Nearly half of North American electric utilities participating in the 2017-2019 Newton-Evans Research study plan to upgrade or retrofit their SCADA system by 2019. Twenty-two percent plan to upgrade or retrofit their energy management system (EMS), and twenty-five percent will upgrade or retrofit their outage management system (OMS). Twenty-six percent of North American utilities in the survey sample are adding a new or replacement distribution management system (DMS) or advanced DMS by 2019.

In comparison to the North America survey sample, a greater percentage of international utilities surveyed plan to install new or replacement systems for EMS, SCADA and OMS. A greater percentage also plan to upgrade and/or retrofit systems across the board. Twenty-nine percent of international survey respondents plan to replace or install new EMS or OMS systems by the end of 2019. Sixty-four percent will upgrade or retrofit their existing SCADA systems, and 36% will upgrade or retrofit their DMS or OMS systems by year end 2019.

Continue reading Newton-Evans Study Finds Differences in Spending Plans for Electric Utility Control Systems Over the 2017-2019 Years

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Findings from International Study of EMS, SCADA, DMS, and OMS Indicate Differences in Usage Patterns and Development Priorities When Compared to North American Companies

The Newton-Evans Research Company has published report findings from the company’s recently completed study of EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS usage patterns in international electric power utilities. This is the second of four volumes of its 14th global market assessment of operational control systems – a survey-based study conducted by Newton-Evans since 1984.

Here are some observations gleaned from interviews and surveys with 31 utility participants from 25 countries:

Systems in Use
All utilities that participated in the survey are operating SCADA systems, and 74% also have an energy management (EMS) installation. Fifty-two percent use a distribution management systems (DMS) and 61% use an outage management system (OMS).

Continue reading Findings from International Study of EMS, SCADA, DMS, and OMS Indicate Differences in Usage Patterns and Development Priorities When Compared to North American Companies

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Research Findings Point to Upgrade of EMS, SCADA and DMS Capabilities during 2017-2019 among North American Electric Power Utilities to Accommodate Renewables Integration and Demand Response

Emphasis Placed on Extending Applications and Expanding Roles of Distribution Management Systems and Outage Management Systems

Here are some observations based on interviews and surveys with 69 utilities from North America participating in our survey:

Almost one-half of all North America survey respondents (47%) plan to upgrade or retrofit their SCADA installations by 2019. Most respondents with such plans were mid-size and larger cooperatives and public power utilities.

Twenty-six percent of respondents plan to purchase a new or replacement DMS by 2019. Only six (major) utilities reported that they currently have an Advanced DMS, but 24 others will have an ADMS in the near future. Importantly, of the 30 respondents using or planning to use an ADMS, none indicated that their SCADA functionality and network modeling presently include distributed energy resources (DERs). However, most of this sub-group (82%) plans to include DERs in their ADMS functionality in the future.

Real-time network analysis and fault location were the prevalent applications being used as part of current DMS or ADMS installations. Plans are centered on supplementing these (where not yet implemented) and adding network optimization and distributed energy resource management capabilities. (See Fig. 1)

Figure 1. Applications used as a part of DMS/ADMS

Real-time linkages between SCADA and GIS or OMS were found in 44% of the utility sites. Forty-one percent reported having no real-time linkages among these systems.

Almost half of the survey respondents indicated that the operational systems support group is managed by the line of business, while 31% stated that such support is now part of corporate IT. (See Fig. 2)

Figure 2. How is OS Support Managed?

Third party services are being used and relied upon to assist with NERC CIP compliance issues and for the conduct of vulnerability assessments.

DNP3 continues to be the most prevalent operational data communications protocol throughout North American electric power utilities. Plans call for continuing the use of DNP3 for the foreseeable future among most of these utilities. Some planning for IEC 61850 is underway, but remains at a low level among these respondents.

More than a score of additional topics were surveyed in this new study including the impact of NERC CIP compliance on budgets and workloads; cyber security issues; telecommunications strategies and methodologies; distribution network model maintenance; changing organizational responsibilities for control systems; budget outlooks; and applications usage patterns.

Further information on this new series, “The World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems and Distribution Management Systems in Electric Utilities: 2017-2019” is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 Email: info@newton-evans.com or visit us at www.newton-evans.com or to order any of more than 100 related reports. For readers interested in purchasing this new series please call or email the company for special introductory pricing.

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Newton-Evans Study Finds Market for Relay-Centric Devices and Controls Expanding with Emergence and Growth of Newer Industry Segments

Newton-Evans Research Company continues to assess the results of its six-month research study of protective relay usage patterns in the world community of electric power utilities. Findings from 114 large and mid-size utilities in 28 countries point to some newer trends in adoption and use of protection and control technology.

Importance of Purchasing “Known” Relays: Sixty-five percent of the North American respondents strongly agreed with the statement, “It is important that we purchase known relays (a proven product with which we have had prior experience).” Overall, 97% of North American respondents strongly agreed (65%) or agreed (32%). Three people were neutral about this statement. None of the respondents expressed any level of disagreement. Eighty-two percent of North American utilities serving more than 500,000 electricity end users strongly agreed with this statement.

Fifty-three percent of international respondents strongly agreed with this statement. Forty-one percent agreed only somewhat. One person disagreed and one person was neutral about this statement.

Agree or Disagree: “It is important that we purchase known relays (a proven product with which we have had prior experience.)”

Impact:
The role of “purchasing known relays” makes it very difficult for new market entrants to gain a share of this multi-billion-dollar global protective relay market. Similarly, it has become equally difficult for existing relay suppliers to gain new customers unless the relays are components of larger electrical equipment (motors, transformers, switchgear, et al). Despite these market constraints, caused in large part by a steep learning curve in programming and protection settings, some relay manufacturers have increased their market presence through specialization in the design and supply of protective relays for one or more product segments (protection of motors, transformers, generators, switchgear and the like). Other manufacturers have continued to offer a wide range of protection solutions, but address specific world regions or specific types of electric utilities or industries.

Examples of such specialized expertise can be found in many of the companies engaged in the manufacture of protective relays. Witness the success of Beckwith Electric, a market leader in generator protection and now actively engaged in distributed generation protection as well. Basler Electric’s microprocessor-based relays combine multifunction protection with control, metering, data acquisition and network communications. RFL and ERLPhase are two additional specialist participants in the North American and international markets. The global electrical equipment manufacturers with a wide array of protective device offerings include ABB, Eaton, GE, Siemens and Toshiba. Relay-centric manufacturing leaders include the multi-hundred million dollar businesses of the USA’s Schweitzer Engineering Labs (SEL) and the China’s NARI.

So the question now is – how do relay manufacturers grow in a “mature” market for protective devices? The response is this: While the traditional utility and industrial markets for device protection are indeed mature in many countries- there are a host of new relay-centric applications for protective devices that include significant relay-like functions and control-monitoring capabilities and require less complex programming and relay setting procedures. The market requirement to protect distributed energy devices including wind turbines and solar panels continues to grow. The expanding market for distribution automation device controls (capacitor banks, reclosers, line monitors, fault sensors, etc.) provides additional new opportunities for participation by relay manufacturers.

DA: Distribution Automation – Capacitor bank relays, Recloser controls, Fault current limiters
DER: Distributed Energy Resources – Wind turbine relays, Photovoltaic panel relays
ES: Energy Storage – Storage battery relay, AC/DC converter controls
DR: Demand Response – Load control switch relay

For further information on the research series or to order The World Market for Protective Relays in Electric Utilities: 2016-2018 visit our reports page.

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Coming Soon: The World Market Study of SCADA, EMS, DMS & OMS in Electric Utilities: 2017-2019

Here is a brochure and order form:
http://www.newton-evans.com/2017EMSSCADABrochure.pdf

Newton-Evans’ World Market Study of SCADA, Energy Management Systems, Distribution Management Systems and Outage Management Systems in Electric Utilities: 2017-2019 is a four volume, multi-client market report. Participants in this market study include utility engineers and managers from investor-owned utilities, municipal and provincial utilities, cooperative utilities within the United States and Canada, together with national power systems throughout the world.

The study will measure current market sizes and will contain projections on a world region basis for the next several years. The entire research program will define the product and market requirements which suppliers must meet in order to successfully participate in one or more of these diverse world market regions.

In the first quarter of 2013, Newton-Evans estimated a combined value of awards for EMS, SCADA, DMS, OMS and energy exchange and ISO/RTO systems at upwards of $6.5 Billion over 4 years. It will be important for electric utilities and control system vendors to learn how changes in the world market conditions since then will affect the outlook for 2017-2019.

Methodology
Field survey work is conducted using a mix of primary research methods including personal interviews, mail surveys, faxes, e-mail and follow-up telephone interviews. Over the past 15 years, more than 1,000 utility officials have participated in one or more Newton-Evans grid modernization and energy automation-related studies.

The survey-based findings in Volumes 1 (North American Market) and 2 (International Market) will discuss the following:
 Approximate number of Poletop RTUs, Feeder/secondary RTU’s/Smart DA devices, Substation RTUs, PLCs, SA platforms, Synchrophasor measurement units, and Substation level phasor data concentrators. Anticipated numbers planned for installation by year-end 2017, along with protocol requirements.
 Plans to implement IEC 61850
 Communications Methods in use and planned for use
 SCADA/EMS/DMS/OMS procurements, new, replacement and upgrade plans for SCADA/EMS/DMS/OMS
 External assistance and third party services requirements in control center operations

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January 2017 Edition of Market Trends Digest

A new edition of the Newton-Evans Market Trends Digest is now available:
http://www.newton-evans.com/newsletter_archive/mtdJan2017.pdf

This issue includes:

  • A look back at the Worldwide Protective Relay Marketplace study completed last month
  • Progress report and interim findings from the 2017-2019 SCADA, EMS, DMS and OMS global market study
  • Excerpts from a 2016 study on the need for third party consulting services in the areas of metering, OT and NERC CIP compliance
  • Observations on the Metering, AMI and related Telecommunications Market

We look forward to sharing more energy industry market intelligence in 2017.